California’s greenhouse gas emissions are expected to decline by about 2.4% in 2022, an encouraging sign that the state’s carbon footprint is falling again even as state officials say the economy is recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic.
The California Air Resources Board announced Friday that greenhouse gas emissions will be reduced by about 9.3 million cubic meters of carbon dioxide in 2022 compared to 2021, the equivalent of taking 2.2 million gasoline-powered cars off the road for a year.
More than half of those declines came from the transportation sector, as California drivers bought more electric cars and less gasoline. In addition, trucks hauling freight from ports and rail yards are running on biofuel instead of conventional diesel fuel.
“The numbers are clear: Our progressive rules are reducing emissions, spurring innovation and moving us closer to meeting our climate goals,” Air Resources Board Chair Leanne Randolph said in a statement. “The future is possible with clean air and a strong economy, and California is leading the way.”
Greenhouse gas emissions in 2022 were the lowest since 2020, a year marked by pandemics, economic disruptions and supply chain disruptions. In 2021, California emissions will increase by approximately 3.4% due to increased consumption and economic recovery following vaccine development.
The reduction in greenhouse gas emissions in 2022 shows the state will continue to reduce carbon emissions as the economy grows, officials said. From 2000 to 2022, national emissions decreased by 20% and gross domestic product (the value of goods and services) increased by 78%.
“One of the things I think is important is that there has been a significant decline and some recovery during the COVID period of 2020 (in 2021),” said Steven Cliff, executive director of the State Air Resources Board. “We didn’t see the rebuilding going on. You know, the policy works. And in fact, here in ’22 we’re very close to where we were in 2020, when there was a really steep decline.”
With the world’s fifth-largest economy and the nation’s largest population, California has made significant progress in transitioning away from fossil fuels. But questions remain about whether the country will meet its ambitious climate goals, including its 2030 target of cutting carbon emissions by 40% compared with 1990 levels.
To meet that goal, Californians would need to eliminate 113 million metric tons of carbon dioxide per year, the equivalent of the emissions from 29 coal-fired power plants.
Some experts have expressed skepticism about reaching that mark, but Cliff said he is optimistic.
“The goal here is to meet the goals set out in the law. (and) bring them up to date with the long-term goals, obviously, as soon as we can do that,” Cliff said.
“We have a lot of policies on the books that are becoming mandatory, so I would expect the cuts to accelerate toward that goal over time,” Cliff said. “So I think we’re on track.”
Transportation remains the largest source of domestic emissions: passenger cars account for 27% of the planet’s greenhouse gases. But there has been great progress in the sale of electric cars. By 2022, more than 300,000 plug-in hybrid or zero-emission vehicles will be sold in California, representing about 20% of all light-duty vehicle sales.
Progress is encouraging, as the share of auto sales has increased by 2023, when 1 in 4 cars purchased in California will be zero-emission.
California is expanding the role of renewable energy in its power grid. About 50% of the state’s energy comes from zero-emission wind, solar or nuclear power.
The state’s industrial emissions also fell 2% to the lowest level since greenhouse gas estimates were made in 2000, largely due to continued declines in oil production.
Methane, a greenhouse gas that warms the planet 80 times faster than carbon dioxide, has increased over the past two decades from the state’s dairy farms, landfills and leaky pipelines. Officials say agricultural waste and debris will decline slightly in 2022 with the deployment of cow manure storage facilities and reduction of solid waste, both designed to reduce methane emissions.
But greenhouse gas emissions from commercial and residential buildings have risen as more workers return to large office buildings that require heating and cooling. As a result, emissions of hydrofluorocarbons, a greenhouse gas, have increased.
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